Week 1 fantasy football stats notebook: Raiders rule NFL reveals we can’t wait to see

Week 1 is about trying to find the appropriate level of response. You need to react to what you see, but we must collectively try not to over-react.

In the wake of the “grand disclosure” some action is required.

It’s essentially Week 1: The curtain lifts and we finally get to see the reality of what we’ve all been theorizing about summer. Sometimes our guesses will appear dead-accurate and sometimes we’ll be thrown off. Then we have to decide whether week 1 was just a blip or a new reality that we need to adjust our expectations to match.

My entire Week 1 advanced stats notebook will be focused on the “grand reveal” that I can’t wait to play. I’ll start with a whole team that I can’t wait to track down, the Las Vegas Raiders.

On average over the past three years, Josh McDaniels has been in the bottom half of the league in offense plays and maintained a 46% run play percentage. Now, it’s worth noting that those three seasons included the final year of tom brady Patriot Run where he was attached to a compromised receiver corps, Strange cam newton year and Mac Jones’ Fraudulent campaign. You could argue that the McDaniels were plagued by a condition that made it impossible to run the offense he intended.

[Week 1 Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | DST | Kickers]

We’ve seen McDaniels play offense in New England fast and throw high-percentage passes at a strong clip. Nothing about the Patriots the last three seasons, and especially the last two, weren’t convenient to play that way. He wanted to do something different in a perfect world, he couldn’t. with Derek Carey On top of that, he has a quarterback who can run an efficient and high-volume passing game.

You better believe this is what he wants if you are absolutely investing in Raiders passing game players.

It’s good that the target distribution of the Raiders should be fairly concentrated among their top three guys. There really is no valid WR3 that will order looks and times Amir Abdullah In what clearly looks like a retreat, he is more likely to be an outlet player than someone who achieves the planned goal.

The Raiders’ Big Three . There is also more versatility than credit between Davante Adams, Darren Waller And Hunter Renfro.

Adams is the best outside receiver in the NFL, but he still stood in the slot last season on 466 snaps and maintained 37.3% of goals per route run. When he was inside, they were getting him the ball. Renfro is primarily a slot receiver, but has enough ability to beat man coverage to play as an off-the-line flanker receiver. Waller is a former wideout that may line out as an X-receiver in some packages. McDaniels has a lot of work to do and will create a drama primarily around these three people.

Receiver Davante Adams and quarterback Derek Carr can lead a strong Raiders passing attack that will thrill fantasy managers. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Still, you want these three players splitting 65 to 70% of a big passing pie and that’s what they’re looking for in Week 1.

Whereas in the receiving department the attackers are an embarrassment of money and we Thinking That McDaniel wants to throw the ball at high speed in a perfect world, we need to see it. This Brain Trust Also Brought To Fullback jacob johnson from New England. They could have shot for big passing plays from the heavy personnel package – the 2021 Raiders did a really good job of it – but it still speaks volumes of a desire to steer the ball well.

That’s the key. Raiders should aim to be a good running team and can be. josh jacobs have a good back and rookie conscience white Some pop. His offensive line isn’t even enough to leave a ton behind and eliminate Carr. However, they need No Be a late offense like the McDaniels teams.

Inverse cases in the range of results are where Carr has a career-best season, and pushes through the air for 5,000 yards with more than 30 touchdowns. McDaniels’ older offenses are well suited to achieving that kind of production, the Raiders have a trio of pass-catchers to do it and Carr is perfectly good at running an uptempo offense like that. So everyone eats here. What we don’t want to see in Week 1 is any sort of Raiders team, which looks like it wants to set up a ton of races on the field with Johnson even if they’re facing a Chargers team, who bled to drive production backwards. year.

We want to see a quarterback who is getting the ball out quickly and exploiting the variety of mismatches that will be available when you have the best divider, a dynamite slot and tight end getter at your disposal. There will be a Hawking.

I think this is what is going to happen but I need the grand reveal to show that this is the case. Week 1 is just that.

Aaron Jones leads all RBs with 300 snaps with 15.4% screen root percentage

Aaron Jones’ The upside as a receiver was what led me to rank as my RB6 on the offensive throughout the draft season. Yes, with whom he can share the hurried work AJ Dillon, The latter may also factor into a receiver more than we think.

However, Jones is the only reliable and explosive player in getting the pecking order to the Packers. His range of results includes him leading the team in catches at the high end and I’m not sure it’s He A strange case.

Aaron Rodgers Will definitely look at Jones as an option in the passing game as he trusts him and the running back has shown the ability to get downfield. We clearly see that they will design touch in the passing game as well. If Jones is going to return to my extremely bullish expectations, I want to see that happen in Week 1.

Antonio Gibson finished second with a screen root percentage of 13.9%

It’s interesting because we know Antonio Gibson does not have a massive passing role with JD McKissick in the bottom. However, Washington clearly doesn’t mind creating some looks for him to get the ball into space. It makes sense given his receiving background, even if they don’t trust him as a pass-blocker or in a rush-off offense.

with Brian Robinson Unfortunately on the shelf for at least the next four weeks, Gibson’s weekly outlook is going to look a lot the same as it did last season. He might be committing a slightly better offense right now, or at least one that threatens teams more often.

Remember that Gibson played eight games of more than 19 touches last season despite playing with an injury. He could get off to a warm start in 2022 with the Jaguars and Lions the first two teams on Washington’s schedule.

James Conner averaged 4.5 yards per carry running in the lightbox

He finished second in the light box with 120 runs, which was good for 59% of his total.

Connor’s putrid overall yards per carry from last season is often cited as the primary reason for his fade. However, it is worth remembering that his large amount of short-yardage and the goal line brought down his carry per yard. This is how averaging works!

This figure shows that Connor was still efficient and could be explosive when running under favorable conditions. The Cardinals spread more field than any other team with a multi-receiver set. He will find himself advantageous in many of them.

Among all wide receivers, the DJ Moore team is ranked fourth in air yard share, fourth in goal share, and seventh in goals per route run.

We simply do not give enough credence to the fact that dj moore Last year saw alpha-level volumes. no one is ready to step beyond that and Perhaps Robbie AndersonHe can easily do it again.

I’m sure I’ve said it 100 times in the off-season, but I want to stay ahead if Moore has a big season. Now that he gets to play at least league-average quarterback for the first time in his career, 2022 could be that season.

How baker mayfield His relationship with plays and Moore is one of the first week shows that I’m looking forward to. I think his games overlap a lot more than Mayfield’s Odell Beckham But it’s time to see if it comes to fruition.

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Mitch Trubisky averaged 9.5 air yards per attempt in the preseason and threw only 17.6% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage

For further reference, Kenny Pickett was at 8.9 and 22.2%. Even those two numbers are what . was far from Ben Roethlisberger Dropped out last season.

The Steelers offense is full of good young players that we all want to love in fantasy football. There is no way all these players can hit if the offense is structured like last year. We have reason to believe that Roethlisberger withdrew the offense, not necessarily just with his game, but also for his refusal to take on modern concepts such as pace, action or even center Refuse it He simply didn’t want to get it and it confined the crime to small areas.

We have plenty of evidence that the way these quarterbacks played in the preseason and the pace Matt Canada called for, will change things this season. Pickett was not an innocent prospect and Trubisky’s NFL career clearly hasn’t been smooth. However, only from a structural standpoint, he can be upgraded to the Steelers offense and Piquet clearly has the upside of being more than that.

Top-5 QB Scramble Percentage

1 – Trey Lance 14.3%

2 – Justin Fields 13.9%

3 – Jalen hurts 11.5%

4 – Lamar Jackson 10.7%

5 – Jameis Winston 10.6%

I have been and still consider myself one Trey Lance People. She’s at the top of my list for week 1, which shows I can’t wait to see.

I am also open to the idea that Justin Fields Lance has an arbitrage version. There’s no doubt that Lance is surrounded by better pass-catchers and possibly a better running game in San Francisco. However, if Fields continues to scramble at a similar clip, he will easily outrun his ADP. You could argue that this new coaching staff would lean more into their dynamics than Matt Nagy’s crew. We saw plenty of boot action and moving pockets from Chicago at the Presidency.

Fields had a low streak of top-12 quarterback scoring weeks when he was healthy in the later parts of his rookie year. Chicago’s offense will have messy moments but Fields may still be good at fantasy. If you have a non-elite QB1 you’re feeling a little unsure about – a Matthew Stafford either Derek Carey Type and maybe even Lance himself – I think you can hide the fields.

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