Tropical Depression Nine forms, could hit Florida as Hurricane Hermine next week

Tropical Depression Nine made landfall in the Caribbean on Friday along a path that could make it to Florida in the form of Hurricane Hermione next week.

In its 5 a.m. update, the National Hurricane Center said the storm is moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph. Experts expect it to move westwards over the next day or so and then turn west-northwest and then northwest over the weekend.

NHC hurricane specialist Philippe said, “The system already had a well-defined circulation for the past 12 to 18 hours, but it was only overnight that ongoing convective activity was able to persist for longer periods near the center, Which was considered a tropical cyclone.” Papin.

Maximum sustained wind speeds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Hermine is forecast to form later today over the weekend and rise to hurricane strength on Monday morning with its center south of Cuba near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica.

“The path we’re seeing is still not entirely clear, but it’s aiming in the general direction of Florida next week,” said Spectrum News 13 meteorologist Brian Karik. “So I’d be willing to spend the weekend getting ready for your storm, maybe above the gas tank, and get your generator ready, some bottled water and canned good plus we look at the system next week. “

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The five-day path has made it northward over Cuba by Tuesday and then past the southwest coast of Florida as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 110 mph and gusts of 130 mph as of Wednesday morning. Parked with.

“There is still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast in the 4-5 day time frame,” Papin said.

There is no Coastal Watch or Warning at this time.

Tropical Depression Nine with heavy rain in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands is expected over the next few days with heavy rain, flash floods and possible landslides in Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight will examine the system later this morning.

Already in Central Florida, where it has rained of late, the Seminole County Office of Emergency Management has started its sandbag service and is preparing shelters if needed. Shelter locations are not announced until shelters are fully established and staffed.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Fiona has passed through Bermuda and is now moving toward Canada, while Tropical Storm Gaston has begun to turn and is moving toward the Azores islands in the Atlantic.

NHC is also tracking two more systems with the potential to form into the next tropical storm or depression.

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Most likely a low pressure area of ​​showers and thunderstorms located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is showing signs of organization. The NHC said a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves north at about 10 mph parallel to the African coast.

The NHC gives it an 80% chance of being built in the next two to five days.

If it forms with sustained winds of 39 mph or higher, it will be named Tropical Storm Ian.

There is a broad area of ​​low pressure several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the central tropical Atlantic that continues to produce some disordered typhoon activity. The NHC said some development is possible as it flows northwest or north into the mid-Atlantic.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance in the next two days and a 30% chance in the next five days.

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Hurricane Fiona has dropped in intensity from Category 4 to Category 3 with sustained winds of 125 mph as it moves north toward the coast of Nova Scotia.

As of 8 a.m. its center was located about 125 miles north of Bermuda, which is no longer under a hurricane warning, but is still a tropical storm warning. It is moving to the north-northeast at 25 mph, which is forecast to make a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds later today, then, in Nova Scotia and on Saturday Continue into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and then into Labrador, and then. Over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

The system’s wind zone is expanding as it moves out of the tropics, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 115 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 345 miles.

The Canadian Hurricane Center issued a hurricane warning for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, le-de-la-Madeleine and Newfoundland, with tropical storm warnings for New Brunswick, Quebec, Anticosti Island and other areas of Nova Scotia. is of. Newfoundland.

Although not a threat to Florida, Fiona’s waves are still causing surf and boating issues, with strong rip current conditions along the US East Coast including Florida as well as the Bahamas.

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As of 8 a.m., Tropical Storm Gaston also has now subsided slightly with sustained winds of 60 mph as its center was located about 135 miles north-northwest of Fayal Island in the central Azores, extending east-west. was moving to the southeast at 7 mph.

“A slow southeasterly motion is forecast today, followed by a southerly, and then a southwestward motion, tonight and early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near parts of the Azores today or early Saturday,” NHC forecasters said.

The system’s tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 115 miles, but it is expected to become tropical by Saturday as it moves west into the Atlantic.

From September 1, the tropics began playing catchup, catching four named storms in three weeks after nearly two months of calm.

In early August the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its season forecast that 2022 will still be above average with 14 to 21 named storms, although no named storms formed in the month of August.

The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while the 2021 season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year requires 14 named storms.

Through Gaston, 2022 has produced seven designated systems.

Sun-Sentinel staff writers contributed to this report.

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