Tracking Invest 98-L: Will system pose threat to Florida?

Tracking Invest 98-L: Will system pose threat to Florida?



Hi there. Thanks for checking out the latest on the tropics here on west dot com. I’m first warning meteorologist eric burris. Let’s get right to invest 98. This is *** storm system that is struggling with *** capital s there It is. Where? Right. Well, last night when I was tracking it on Western news at 11, it came ashore here in South America and spent *** good part of the night over land. It’s starting to come back out around the abc islands around Caracas and little by little. It will make its way into more favorable territory, warm waters, lower wind shear, but about the next 12 to 24 hours time that wind shear will be their latest in the hurricane center. Is that There’s *** high likelihood that this gets going. *** 70% likelihood in two days time. *** 90% likelihood in five days time. Okay, gradual development could become *** tropical depression over the next couple of days and then of course *** tropical storm and then *** hurricane. Speaking of that, here’s the intensity models. Okay, so they’re all really in agreement with through the weekend, keeping it relatively weak. But by Monday Tuesday, that’s when the models are going to start to strengthening. So where is it during those time frames? Well, let’s look at the model comparisons together, shall we on the left, you’re gonna have the european model on the right, You’re gonna have the GFS model. Okay, so there’s saturday. Let’s just roll right through getting you to sunday. Okay, we’ll back it up just *** little bit for for discussion sake. So there’s sunday. I want to point out that the two models are starting to show difference of opinion. The GFS wants to try and develop it *** little quicker. You can see those orange shades are getting in *** strong tropical storm force winds, whereas the european south of Jamaica on sunday says it’s probably still winds of about 30 35 miles an hour. Okay, continuing through time, there’s monday 12 30 both storms gradually increasing the Euro around the Caymans, the GFS *** bit further south. All right, let’s continue through time, Tuesday. Both models showing *** hurricane forming, but the GFS is approaching Cancun, whereas the european is getting up toward cuba. This is obviously where things differ because by 9:30 a.m. On Wednesday, you’ve got the GFS around Mexico, the european leaving cuba and approaching the florida coastline. And then of course from there, 6:30 a.m. thursday florida’s west coast would be tracking *** hurricane. Whereas with the GFS wins out, it’s just re emerging into the gulf of Mexico and then eventually tries to recurve anywhere from about Louisiana off toward the east. So the two models are varying significantly in opinion. This if there’s one thing that I hope to impress upon you, it’s that this is our timeline next couple of days land interaction and wind shear is going to keep it week. So it’s not like it’s going to get explosive and intensity any time soon. Late this week though, like I know we’re in thursday, but like friday saturday, that’s when we’re going to start to see this trying to develop and I would say by sunday given its position expectation sunday, that’s when we should start to have *** pretty decent idea of where it goes. And again, you know, where would it be on sunday if we just use the two models? Let’s just back this up by sunday. That’s when the models are starting to show that intensification. Right? So by sunday you’re talking about *** storm system somewhere past Jamaica around the Caymans. That’s when we’re going to start because computer models really struggle with development and forecasting when there’s nothing there, right? Makes sense garbage data in garbage data out. Okay, so it’s definitely something to watch very closely. What about the timing of this? Let’s take *** look hour by hour at the computer forecast models. Okay, so let’s just roll through time. Here’s the spaghetti plots that everybody loves saturday into sunday. There you go. I’ll back it up just *** little bit to make it *** bit more of *** round number. Here’s saturday morning, 11 am around Jamaica, saturday afternoon, into sunday, there’s two p.m. Sunday around the Caymans, right then from there getting closer to cuba by about monday afternoon and then just kind of continuing from there, here’s Tuesday afternoon emerging into the gulf of Mexico and you can kind of see from there, you know, where do the models take it right there’s Wednesday 10 a.m. Into the gulf. *** lot of the models wanting to make *** hard right turn Wednesday night into thursday and then of course it’s, it’s really *** thursday impact somewhere. Um I I want to pause for *** moment from the actual model data. I saw this meme and I, the idea of sharing *** meme online certainly isn’t *** normal thing, but I think that this really tells the story. If you’re highlighted in yellow, you might get *** hurricane. If you’re highlighted in yellow, you might not get *** hurricane. It’s cheesy. I know, but it’s important to remember that in terms of this storm system, we are still seven days out right? Like the models aren’t no matter what direction they go. The models aren’t showing development and intensification until this weekend and they’re not showing landfall until like next thursday, there’s *** lot of model runs between now and thursday, there’s *** lot that’s going to change. I like to call it the windshield wiper effect on the computer forecast models. They’re going to go left, they’re going to go right, you’re going to see many different solutions and some of them are gonna look more scary than others. Right? But just stay tuned stay dialed into the models okay and we’ll keep you up to date. But for now there it is. The storm system just offshore of south America will be working through the caribbean in some of the most potent energy filled water in the entire basin. From there. When you put *** storm in the Gulf of Mexico, that’s, of course where it gets to be concerning. Stay with the West to around the clock. For updates, I will have *** live update on our social channels at 3:30 PM. Take care.

Tracking Invest 98-L: Will system pose threat to Florida?

ABOVE: Take a look at the model comparisons to see when and how this may impact Florida WESH 2 meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a tropical disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean Sea.As of Thursday morning, upper-level winds were inhibiting development, but the upper-level wind pattern ahead of the system is forecast to become a little more favorable in a couple of days.The system is given a 70% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of development in the next five days. “We still need to watch this storm very closely,” WESH 2 meteorologist Kellianne Klass said. “The general path still looks the same: into the Gulf and potentially impacts Florida, but the exact path is still unknown. Our two major models are still swapping between the panhandle and the peninsula. Either way, we are expecting this storm to strengthen. Models are also different on the timing. GFS is now slower, while the Euro is still looking like the mid-week/end of workweek timeframe.”Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona is drifting through the Atlantic as a major Category 4 storm. And Tropical Storm Gaston is not expected to pose a threat to land.KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUEDStay tuned to WESH 2 News, WESH.COM, or NOAA Weather Radio for storm updates.Prepare to bring inside any lawn furniture, outdoor decorations or ornaments, trash cans, hanging plants, and anything else that can be picked up by the wind.Understand hurricane forecast models and cones.Prepare to cover all windows of your home. If shutters have not been installed, use precut plywood.Check batteries and stock up on canned food, first-aid supplies, drinking water, and medications.The WESH 2 First Warning Weather Team recommends you have these items ready before the storm strikes.Bottled water: One gallon of water per person per dayCanned food and soup, such as beans and chiliCan opener for the cans without the easy-open lidsAssemble a first-aid kitTwo weeks’ worth of prescription medicationsBaby/children’s needs, such as formula and diapersFlashlight and batteriesBattery-operated weather radioWHAT TO DO WHEN A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUEDListen to the advice of local officials. If you are advised to evacuate, leave.Complete preparation activitiesIf you are not advised to evacuate, stay indoors, away from windows.Be alert for tornadoes. Tornadoes can happen during a hurricane and after it passes over. Remain indoors, in the center of your home, in a closet or bathroom without windows.HOW YOUR SMARTPHONE CAN HELP DURING A HURRICANEA smartphone can be your best friend in a hurricane — with the right websites and apps, you can turn it into a powerful tool for guiding you through a storm’s approach, arrival and aftermath.Download the WESH 2 News app for iOS | AndroidEnable emergency alerts — if you have an iPhone, select settings, then go into notifications. From there, look for government alerts and enable emergency alerts.If you have an Android phone, from the home page of the app, scroll to the right along the bottom and click on “settings.” On the settings menu, click on “severe weather alerts.” From the menu, select from most severe, moderate-severe, or all alerts.PET AND ANIMAL SAFETYYour pet should be a part of your family plan. If you must evacuate, the most important thing you can do to protect your pets is to evacuate them too. Leaving pets behind, even if you try to create a safe space for them, could result in injury or death.Contact hotels and motels outside of your immediate area to see if they take pets.Ask friends, relatives and others outside of the affected area whether they could shelter your animal.

ABOVE: Take a look at the model comparisons to see when and how this may impact Florida

WESH 2 meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a tropical disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean Sea.

As of Thursday morning, upper-level winds were inhibiting development, but the upper-level wind pattern ahead of the system is forecast to become a little more favorable in a couple of days.

The system is given a 70% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of development in the next five days.

“We still need to watch this storm very closely,” WESH 2 meteorologist Kellianne Klass said. “The general path still looks the same: into the Gulf and potentially impacts Florida, but the exact path is still unknown. Our two major models are still swapping between the panhandle and the peninsula. Either way, we are expecting this storm to strengthen. Models are also different on the timing. GFS is now slower, while the Euro is still looking like the mid-week/end of workweek timeframe.”

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This content is imported from Twitter.
You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site.

This content is imported from Twitter.
You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona is drifting through the Atlantic as a major Category 4 storm. And Tropical Storm Gaston is not expected to pose a threat to land.

KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED

  • Stay tuned to WESH 2 News, WESH.COM, or NOAA Weather Radio for storm updates.
  • Prepare to bring inside any lawn furniture, outdoor decorations or ornaments, trash cans, hanging plants, and anything else that can be picked up by the wind.
  • Understand hurricane forecast models and cones.
  • Prepare to cover all windows of your home. If shutters have not been installed, use precut plywood.
  • Check batteries and stock up on canned food, first-aid supplies, drinking water, and medications.

The WESH 2 First Warning Weather Team recommends you have these items ready before the storm strikes.

  • Bottled water: One gallon of water per person per day
  • Canned food and soup, such as beans and chili
  • Can opener for the cans without the easy-open lids
  • Assemble a first-aid kit
  • Two weeks’ worth of prescription medications
  • Baby/children’s needs, such as formula and diapers
  • Flashlight and batteries
  • Battery-operated weather radio

WHAT TO DO WHEN A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED

  • Listen to the advice of local officials. If you are advised to evacuate, leave.
  • Complete preparation activities
  • If you are not advised to evacuate, stay indoors, away from windows.
  • Be alert for tornadoes. Tornadoes can happen during a hurricane and after it passes over. Remain indoors, in the center of your home, in a closet or bathroom without windows.

HOW YOUR SMARTPHONE CAN HELP DURING A HURRICANE

A smartphone can be your best friend in a hurricane — with the right websites and apps, you can turn it into a powerful tool for guiding you through a storm’s approach, arrival and aftermath.

Download the WESH 2 News app for iOS | Android

Enable emergency alerts — if you have an iPhone, select settings, then go into notifications. From there, look for government alerts and enable emergency alerts.

If you have an Android phone, from the home page of the app, scroll to the right along the bottom and click on “settings.” On the settings menu, click on “severe weather alerts.” From the menu, select from most severe, moderate-severe, or all alerts.

PET AND ANIMAL SAFETY

Your pet should be a part of your family plan. If you must evacuate, the most important thing you can do to protect your pets is to evacuate them too. Leaving pets behind, even if you try to create a safe space for them, could result in injury or death.

  • Contact hotels and motels outside of your immediate area to see if they take pets.
  • Ask friends, relatives and others outside of the affected area whether they could shelter your animal.

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