Fantasy Football Week 1 Injury Analysis & Start/Sit Advice (2022)

It would be amazing to see JK Dobbins play any meaningful amount for the third week.

Tons of injury news for week 1. I’m Dr. Deepak Chona, founder of SportsMedAnalytics, and we’re teaming up with FantasyPros to bring you the best injury analysis in the NFL throughout the season. If you have more questions, hit us up on Twitter @FantasyPros And @sportMDelis, and we would be happy to address them as well. Now let’s dive.

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JK Dobbins (RB-BAL)

Dobbins is officially suspicious but still limited in practice. It would be amazing to see him play any meaningful amount before week 3. By mid-season, the SportsMedAnalytics (SMA) database estimates him to regain 85% of his peak form, but if we see him playing in September, expect a limited snap. Counts and explosiveness.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)

Yes, he’s already hit the injury report, but it’s reportedly a minor cut in his shin. Expect full workload and performance.

Alan Lazard (WR – UK)

Lazard is suspected with an ankle injury and is almost certainly not going to go after missing three drills in a row. They didn’t tell us whether it was the high ankle variety or the low ankle variety. A high ankle usually means two to four weeks for a WR, and a low ankle usually means closer to one to two.

Chris Godwin (WR – TB)

He’s saying it’s a game-time decision, but despite being listed as a “full participant” in the exercise, he has yet to take a contact hit. It’s hard to imagine him playing as a result.

Even if Godwin is apt, the data strongly suggest that sitting him in the spec is a step forward for now. The SMA forecasts him to hit 85% of his full recovery in mid-October, with 90% coming in mid-November. Perhaps that means limited snap count starting in the week 4 to 6 range and non-start-able production as he ramps up that time.

Michael Thomas (WR – NO)

Officially doubtful, but he has been practicing in limited capacity throughout the week. Pre-season hamstring strains for WRs cause a slight (~10%) drop in production in the short term and also carry a ~20% recurrence risk at some point in the season.

Still, MT should be close to full strength, as we expect last year’s ankle issue to return to normal. 90% of former form is still a potential stud WR, so for Week 1, we’ll feel pretty good about putting him in the lineup. Watch Sunday’s report carefully, though – there could be some last-second changes ahead of the game.

George Kittel (TE – SF)

He’s played without practice before, but the injury only happened on Monday, and if the grade-2 groin strain report is accurate, we’re usually looking at three weeks out. Plan on using your backup for now. After it recovers, his recurrence rate will be ~25% in the short term, but if he remains healthy, his performance should return to normal.

Drake London (WR – ATL)

There hasn’t been a lot of clinical information released on this, but his practice trends seem to be headed in the right direction, and statements from the Falcons are optimistic that London is playing Week 1. I plan on introducing him, but have backups on hand in case surprises at pre-game idle reports.

James Robinson (RB – JX)

It seems that a full 8 months have passed since the Achilles injury, but the historical data stands firmly against them. The SMA projects 80% pre-injury explosiveness at this point, so it’s probably Travis Etienne’s workload. By midseason, Robinson is probably worthy of flex consideration, but at this point, it would be risky to bank on more production in Week 1.

Rondell Moore (WR – ARI)

Due to a reportedly severe hamstring strain this weekend, Moore is unfortunately probably looking at an extended absence. Typical returns (if “severe” is an accurate descriptor) are four to six weeks, with the recurrence rate dropping to about 20% after he returns. It’s not a bad idea to snag the stocks of Marquis Brown and AJ Green.

Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)

Very likely to miss week 1, but positive development is that he is going there and looking good. A typical return takes six weeks, which would put him in the third week. After that point there is little risk of performance loss or recurrence, so watch him soon become a valuable member of your team. It might even be worth buying less if your league-mates aren’t as fast as you.

Phantas Football Start-Sit Assistant

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