“He wrote to me, though I’m not writing back.” What’s the bar? What a way to cap off Week 1 of the Fantasy Football season. But we were already looking ahead in the minutes Geno Smith Leaving the hottest sentiment of 2022. Injury updates and reactions to off-season assumptions quickly filled our timeline.
And we’ll see how accurate some of the analysis was as Week 2 starts tonight.
[Watch Thursday Night Football on Prime Video: Sign up for a 30-day free trial]
The fight for the AFC West goes on as the main host Chargers
Still, the NFL schedule makers set us up for a good night. Instead of a potential Super Bowl matchup, we get a future AFC playoff game. Patrick Mahomes The Chiefs looked unstoppable at the unveiling of their new offense, but as you’ll see the blow, Justin Herbert And the Chargers still have the firepower to match:
I have seen and seen this throw more times than I have accepted. I don’t understand it. It’s not just the pass, but the decision to split the two defenders and fit a ball in front of the third that confuses me. see more herbert Later release. he knew it was good before he came Keenan Allenthe hands of
It is difficult to understand how much talent will be on the field during this game. But I’ll note a few things in the Chargers’ offense.
Last season, Los Angeles was sixth in the starting-down passing rate in neutral conditions at 56.8 percent. They opened at 66.7% in 2022. But even though he’s a cyborg down center, Herbert’s ADOT on those plays was 5.5 air yards. For reference, Mahomes had a 6.6 aDOT under similar conditions on Sunday. So, you would think the Chargers would be equally effective on the ground to advance their offense.
Los Angeles was ranked 30th per EPA crowd. Somehow his run blocking got spoiled. Kansas City held James Conner For a fast 40.0% success rate and he needed a touchdown to save his day. thank you austin A similar runout may be required. Or, the majors could force the Chargers into a high-scoring affair.
Over on the side of the ball, life without tyrek hill It seemed easy enough. I had long believed that Chief Frankenstein could take his receiver room to the Hill. Instead of having one man do many things, just there are many boys, This makes our job as fantasy managers difficult, but we quickly saw who had the “Tyrek Hill” ceremony on Sunday.
Hill was the team’s leading slot receiver in 2021, a position Mahomes targeted at 37.3% of his dropbacks. JuJu Smith-Shuster And mekol hardman Tied for most of the route running from the interior. But Smith-Schuster’s 1.79 YPRR was far better.
Unsurprisingly, Hill earned the most target of more than 20 air yards last year. Mahomes’ deep-ball rate has been on a steady decline as he has seen two-high coverage, but he will swing for the fans when given a chance. Again, Hardman earned some looks. and of course, Marquez Valdes-Scantling Took a handoff on a jet sweep to keep Kansas City’s interest in pre-snap window dressing afloat.
It’s all still there, just with new (and more) faces. The news of the chiefs’ demise was exaggerated. But they still have a big test ahead of them.
The Chargers’ defensive front almost matched the Bills’ pressure rate at 30.2%. As a result, Derek Carey The EPA was ranked 26th per play. The Raiders’ lone explosive passing play didn’t come until the fourth quarter, which was 31-yards Darren Waller, Mahomes can deal with the pressure, but we’ll see if his new passing options can do that.
don’t sell these people
I’ve been trying to keep my reactions under control since last week. It’s easy to get excited when a late guy pops in. But we only have a few days to make a lineup decision, and we can’t use the hype to get anyone started. To help out, I have a few people who are worth getting started with if you need a Flex alternative.
Starting Everett (or feeling comfortable about it) shouldn’t depend on Alan’s availability (he’s already been ruled out). I mean, sure, one can connect the two points and see more opportunities for Everett with one less substitute for Herbert. But we don’t know how the Chargers will fill an Allen-sized hole in their offense. So, let’s start with what we know:
In a worst-case scenario, Los Angeles was easing Everett into the offense. His 17.4% TPRR was ranked 15th among his peers (minimum 4 goals). However, compare its use to other tight ends on newer squads. Evan EngramTPRR of 11.4%. OJ Howard Earn more than half the goal, and I forgot Austin Hooper Was on Titans until the fourth quarter. Also, Everett was skilled with the looks he achieved.
Everett’s 2.35 YPRR placed him comfortably in the top five, with half his goals coming up while the Chargers were in scoring position. The Chargers’ desire hints at their plans to take him around (slot, wide, backfield) in his first game. I’ll start her on Thursday night on the hottest fringe top-12 options.
I’m feeling vindictive about Clyde Edwards-Heller after Sunday. The Chiefs positioned him as a rusher and receiver as we all imagined, with two touchdowns to keep our hopes alive. But it was not a one man army.
McKinnon matched Edwards-Heller in the snaps (27), but McKinnon’s 22.2% goal per route run (TPRR) rate was higher than Edwards-Heller (20.0%). When the game was still competitive (0.3 to 0.15), McKinnon’s EPA per crowd was still high. His only downfall was to be absent in the Red Zone, but we cannot expect a similar scenario tonight.
McKinnon had a one-on-one swap with Edwards-Heller in Week 1. At age 30, his 13.6 YAC per reception was in line with his younger counterpart (14.0). Kansas City will need explosive plays to keep up with Los Angeles, and McKinnon still has the juice. If you need help with RB, take a look at McKinnon.
Don’t rotate it. I’m not trying to chase down touchdowns here. Hardman was twinkling in the end zone after most of the Cardinals’ fans left the stadium. Also, he had only 16 receiving yards that day. But their experiment caught my eye because the Chiefs will need to use all their weapons to achieve victory tonight.
Hardman saw a target on 24.0% of his routes in Week 1. Mahomes only targeted Travis Kelsey and Smith-Schuster at a higher rate. type The goals were interesting too.
Hardman led the team in red-zone goals (3) and tied Smith-Shuster in deep goals, leaving the rest of his goals in a smaller area of the field. While he remained mainly on the periphery, it added to his boxcore instability. But that didn’t stop Mahomes from looking for Hardman.
My only concern is his root involvement, as he was running on just 25 of Mahomes’ 41 dropbacks (the lowest of full-time players). Hardman, however, secured 28.3 per cent air yard share in the opener. He will be less popular given his track record, but worth a shot if you need some punch in your lineup.
Let’s wait a week and see how things go
On the other hand, I don’t want to overreact to a sample of a game. I’m still catching on to some presidential narrative that I couldn’t square off with last week’s action. Maybe week 1 was a sign of things to come, but I’ll keep these guys on my bench for now.
The offseason narrative for Palmer was him replacing Allen. His 10.0 aDOT aligns with where Allen typically operates. When Allen lost time last season, it was Palmer who landed the coveted slot role for the Chargers. And yet, we didn’t see much more work for sophistication after Allen was out of the game.
The positive spin is that he ran the second most routes and was the only WR with a red-zone goal for Los Angeles in Week 1. However, Palmer and deandre carter Divide the slot role into three goals. And Carter was the more productive of the pair with downfield versatility.
Palmer Herbert looks like another crew in the machine. We would also love more time to gain some clarity in what is expected to be a high scoring competition.
Maybe I’m being stubborn here. Regardless, I need to see more from Pacheco. Boxscore scouts will be quick to point to his total yardage as a reason for him to start. its okay. I would also be happy with 12.2 points from the late player. But let’s be real about his consequences for a minute.
Pacheco’s first touch didn’t come until the Chiefs’ third drive as the last man in the rotation. He gained two yards on two carries (with a goal-line effort). We didn’t see the rookie again until the fourth quarter when the score was 37-15. With the game in hand, Pacheco covered 60 of his 62 yards as Edwards-Heller took a seat, and McKinnon made a meaningless carry on his final drive. It’s hard to see a similar game scenario in TNF.
Pacheco did nothing to change his position in the pecking order on Sunday. He was the least efficient of the three on the ground (0.01 EPA per attempt). Also, he didn’t score a single goal on just four routes. I’ll wait another week for more clarity on what Pacheco will pursue.