Erickson’s Week 1 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week 1. You can find our expert consensus fantasy football rankings for the week here. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings, and analysis.

Be sure to check out my following notes on all the players/matchups this week from a season-long, DFS, player props, etc. perspective that shed light on “how the sausage is made” when it comes to finalizing my Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings.

Enjoy!

Saints at Falcons

  • Alvin Kamara averaged RB6 and RB12 appearances in half-point scoring in two matchups last season versus the Falcons. Mark Ingram did not play in either game. Kamara’s touches decreased dramatically last season when Ingram was in the lineup. Averaged 24 touches per game without Ingram but just 15 when he was active.
  • Cordarelle Patterson could see a role reduction from last season, but I’d imagine his volume is at least in the 10-15 touch range out of the gates in Week 1. With Atlanta unlikely to be able to establish the run versus the Saints, Patterson will need to do his damage through the air. Slightly concerned that Damien Williams also offers pass-catching chops and Marcus Mariota‘s rushing ability will reduce overall pass attempts in the offense. Love the under on C-Patt’s rushing yards prop at between 30.5 and 34.5 rushing yards (32.5 on Underdog) depending on where you look. He combined for 21 rushing yards versus the Saints in two games against them last season.
  • Saints WRs – Don’t mind taking a wait-and-see approach with Michael Thomas. Let him play a game, prove that he’s healthy etc. Chris Olave is a sneaky start. Vertical element to his game, A.J. Terrell locking up MT should open opportunities for him to win downfield. Same for Jarvis Landry, who should benefit the most from a soft matchup from the slot against Dee Alford.

Browns at Panthers

  • Baker Mayfield revenge game. Too bad we probably won’t see much offensive production in the lowest totaled game on the Week 1 slate.
  • D.J. Moore – alpha WR with an alpha target share last season, with improved QB play from last season. Robby Anderson got plenty of targets last season but was horribly inefficient. The guy needs to prove to me that he is back to his 2020 form before I even consider playing him. Going under on 32.5 receiving yards.
  • Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be solid — No.2 most favorable matchup per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart. Shoot for the over on Hunt’s 2 receptions prop — a number he hit in every single game he played last season except for one.
  • START David Njoku – Jacoby Brissett is a TE fueling machine…that led Jack Doyle to the fantasy promised land with the Indianapolis Colts. The Cleveland offense ranks top-3 in target share to TEs over the last two seasons.
  • SIT Amari Cooper versus a solid Panthers defense. Jaycee Horn – one catch allowed in 3 games last season. Yards per route covered (0.09) – ranked 1st last season.
    Carolina allowed 4th-fewest receiving yards and 3rd-fewest targets per game to WRs in 2021. Cooper typically plays worse under outdoors conditions and it’s totally unknown how effective he will be with Jacoby Brissett under center. Not excited to play him in Week 1.

49ers at Bears

  • Start Elijah Mitchell. When healthy, Mitchell is poised to put up big numbers. In his last eight starts as the 49ers RB1, he saw carry totals of 27, 21, 21, 22, 27, 27, 17 and 11 averaging 83 rushing yards per game. Overall, Mitchell ranked third in opportunity share, fourth in total carries (including the postseason and finished as just one of 8 backs to hit 1K rushing. Da Bears don’t stand much of a chance of slowing down this 49ers rushing attack. Bet. The. Over on 59.5 rushing yards and 15.5 rushing attempts.
  • Limited pass volume for the 49ers is going to make it tough for all 3 of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to get there. Matt Eberflus’ defense in Indianapolis last season ranked second worst in fantasy points allowed to TEs, so that’s the narrative for backing Kittle (presuming he’s healthy) as the 49er to target among the crop of receivers. However, it seems unlikely Kittle will play – so please disregard my suggestion to “sit” Aiyuk on the FantasyPros Start/Sit podcast. With one of the “Big Three” out, the other two should feast.
  • Go OVER on Deebo Samuel 50.5 receiving yards and Brandon Aiyuk 46.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks.com with code: PR-REQ653D
  • Start Darnell Mooney: 6 catches for 64 yards on nine targets (33% target share) last time he played SF. Last year overall, Mooney ranked 5th in route participation and 8th in target share (27%). Alpha WR1-usage. From Week 11 onward Mooney failed to catch five passes once in eight games played. Week 1 is full of question marks with a lot of players, but Mooney’s secured role as the Bears’ no-doubt target hog makes him a confident start against a not-so-scary 49ers secondary. The big issue is the 49ers’ pass rush, but Fields’ mobility should buy him some time. Consider stacking Mooney’s receiving yards prop with Fields.
  • Still, this game looks and smells like an absolute SLOG. It features the second-lowest total on the week, so it’s hardly a spot where you can expect many offensive fireworks from both sides. The Bears own the lowest implied team total at 17 points.
  • But both quarterbacks on each team are in play as starters because of their rushing abilities. Recall that in this very same matchup last season, Justin Fields rushed for over 100 yards en route to 25 fantasy points.

Steelers at Bengals

  • Joe Mixon: Top-5 running back. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense should not be feared after finishing 32nd in rush defense a season ago. In two games versus the Steel Curtain last season, Mixon accumulated 46 carries for 255 rushing yards. However, I like the Mixon under receiving props whether it be receptions (3) or receiving yards (18.5). He averaged just 2.5 catches and 2 receiving yards against Pittsburgh last season.
  • Also lower on Joe Burrow than consensus. Part of buying into Burrow this season is behind the idea that he will throw more. But based on the success the Bengals have had rushing the ball against Pittsburgh — an increased passing attack may not come to fruition in Week 1. Big fan of the under props for Burrow and company at 260.5 passing yards (265.5 on Underdog). He was under 200 passing yards in both games versus the Steelers last year.
  • Might not take long for George Pickens to fire. Diontae Johnson is banged up and Chase Claypool is playing the slot mostly in the 3-WR sets. That suggests that Pickens might be the snap leader in the WR room and see coverage from the Bengals’ weakest link at CB: Eli Apple
  • Consider me tepid on Najee Harris in Week 1. The Lisfranc injury and the talk of a reduced workload have me ranking him in the backend RB1 territory. A more mobile Mitchell Trubisky under center figures to eat into his receiving totals and expecting Harris to run hot behind a bad Steelers offensive line won’t end favorably. I like the under total receiving and rushing yards prop (86.5).
  • Start Pat Freiermuth: Faded the Muth during draft season, but I like him in this spot. 11 fantasy points per game versus Bengals in 2021.

Eagles at Lions

  • Featuring two of the league’s highest-ranked offensive lines, this Eagles-Lions matchup has the potential to be a shootout under pristine dome conditions.
  • Philly’s defense is much more formidable after upgrading across the board at several positions, but the scheme they run under Jonathan Gannon invites underneath completions – playing right into the strengths of Lions quarterback Jared Goff and playmakers D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson. Philly allowed the league’s highest completion percentage last season – that also ranked 11th-worst all-time.
  • 3rd in receptions and 4th in RZ targets allowed to RBs. Swift stock up.
  • 1st in receptions and RZ touches allowed to TEs. Hockenson had 10 catches for 89 receiving yards in the matchup last season.
  • With underneath targets coming in bunches, I’m fading the deep/vertical threats on the Lions offense in Josh Reynolds and D.J. Chark Jr. Goff’s average depth of throw has decreased over the last four seasons, with his most recent 2021 mark (6.8) ranking dead last among 38 qualifying quarterbacks.
  • Start Miles Sanders. No.1 most favorable matchup per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart. Sanders is going to be efficient running the football and be the RB1 in the offense. “Miles is our guy”. Played in just one preseason game during the summer…but played 100% of the snaps with the 1st-team offense. Going over on 49.5 rushing yards.
  • Jalen Hurts in cash at $6,800 on DraftKings. #TOOCHEAP of an elite QB.
  • Dallas Goedert and Hockenson are both nicely priced mid-ranged TE options in DFS.
  • Lions 5th in receptions allowed to TEs. Goedert went 6 catches for 72 receiving yards in the matchup last season.

Colts at Texans

  • Jonathan Taylor should start out of the gates red-hot against a lowly Houston Texans defense. In two games against this team last season, JT averaged 144 rushing yards per game and two rushing TDs – good for 26 fantasy points per game. He’s a no-brainer in redraft, but his expensive price point in daily formats does raise some hesitation. However, he looks like the perfect leverage play off what will likely be an extremely chalky Dameon Pierce at just $4.8K on DraftKings.
  • The rookie’s mispriced as the clear-cut starter on early downs for the Texans, which will drive his DFS rostership through the roof. But if you drafted him as a starter for redraft, he should be in your lineup with the volume on his side. However, his role as a receiver is extremely murky with Rex Burkhead likely to still be involved. And that creates a situation where Pierce could be a Week 1 bust, should Houston find themselves in a point deficit – as the 8-point spread would suggest. Also can’t ignore the matchup in the trenches that heavily favors the Colts’ defensive line over the Texans’ offensive line per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart.
  • Mo Alie-Cox is the perfect punt tight end in DFS at $3,400 as is Brevin Jordan ($3,100) should fellow Texans TE Pharaoh Brown miss Week 1. Big Mac is a perfect leverage play off the other Colts players because if he hits with a touchdown or two, that naturally lowers the ceiling of other Colts players because they wouldn’t be the ones scoring.
  • Brandin Cooks at $6.3K is a strong play. Cooks should get it done to be a WR2 at worst based on his established rapport with Davis Mills. During the final four games of the season with Davis Mills at quarterback, Cooks was top-10 in fantasy points per game (15.0) to go along with a top-5 target rate per route run (33%). I expect the Texans to pick on Brandon Facyson – who finished last season as PFF’s fourth-worst graded coverage cornerback in 2021. Was often targeted deep downfield – 8th-highest aDOT.
  • Michael Pittman Jr. at $5.5K – great value. 31% target share from Weeks 13-18 last season. But might be worth fading in larger fields. Also worth taking the under on Alec Pierce’s 36.5 receiving yards prop. He and Parris Campbell split usage as the WR2 during the preseason, so consider me pessimistic on the rookie hitting from the get-go. Matt Ryan’s deep ball rate (9.1%) ranked 32nd out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in 2021, so I don’t buy the argument that Pierce will get “one” to hit his prop total.

Fantas Football Start-Sit Assistant

Patriots at Dolphins

  • How the New England backfield will shake out in Week 1 is one of the biggest questions on fantasy managers’ minds. Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson. I for one am in the Stevenson camp in the long-term and here in Week 1. If forced to start one of these Patriots backs I much prefer Stevenson.
  • I’d be sitting Harris in a road divisional matchup that could see the Patriots trailing – which would likely favor Stevenson from a usage standpoint. The last time Harris played the Dolphins (Week 18) he rushed for just 37 yards while splitting snaps with Stevenson and Brandon Bolden, with the Patriots facing a negative game script. Harris UNDER 50.5 rushing yards prop – Prizepicks.com. Number is bigger on Underdog at 54.5 rushing yards.
  • I am trying to sit the majority of my Patriots in this particular matchup with all the factors at all play.
  • The Patriots’ offense still looks like a work in progress
  • New England often treats the first four weeks of the regular season as an extension of the preseason
  • Miami’s defense is stacked from top-to-bottom – albeit starting CB Byron Jones is out for the first four weeks.
  • Patriots WR pecking order looks much closer to a wait-and-see, even though I believe Parker emerges as the No. 1 in this offense.
  • Same thing at tight end, with Jonnu Smith potentially creating a target squeeze alongside Hunter Henry. Henry’s dependency on scoring touchdowns for fantasy made his production extremely volatile with just a 14% target share (13th) last season. In seven of his games, he finished as a top-12 tight end. In the other eight games, he finished outside the top 18. Patriots with the 23rd-implied team total should not increase confidence that TDs are coming in plentiful. Henry did not catch a TD versus MIA last year. And their defense ranked 31st in red-zone targets faced.
  • With average playmakers all healthy and available, there really isn’t a single Patriots player I’m giddy about starting in Week 1.
  • Fade Mike Gesicki – Never had more than 34 receiving yards in a single game against the Patriots. New blocking role in a TE committee…easy fade.
  • Chase Edmonds – start. Solid floor role. Room for more if he ends up seeing red-zone touches after the team released Sony Michel. So cheap on DraftKings at $5,200 considering the full-PPR scoring format.
  • Start Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle. I have voiced Waddle over Hill during draft season, but don’t think that will necessarily be the case in Week 1. We often see teams force-feed their new toys targets early in the year and Hill’s speed creates a massive mismatch against a Patriots defense that looks like it’s moving at half-speed at times. Starting outside CBs Jalen Mills and Jonathan Jones both run 4.6s. Slot cornerback Myles Bryant is faster (4.3 speed) but has the highest target rate per route covered (19%).

Ravens at Jets

  • The matchup is brutal for the Jets WRs. The Baltimore Ravens have a great secondary. However, Elijah Moore is downright nasty.
  • 24% target rate per route run last season. WR2 overall and top-5 in fantasy points per game during his last stretch of six games played…
  • And Moore’s one game with Flacco at QB? (Wk 11): 8 catches for 141 receiving yards and 1 TD on nine targets versus a strong Dolphins defense.
    From Graham Barfield of FantasyPoints: 42 attempts for Flacco last season – 13 to Moore for a 31% target share.
  • First-round rookie WR Garrett Wilson should remain firmly on benches after splitting time as the WR3 with Braxton Berrios when playing with the starters during the preseason. Also fade Corey Davis‘ 40.5 receiving yards prop with the tough matchup, even though he is a full-time starter.
  • Anticipate some kind of split between Breece Hall and Michael Carter in Week 1 based on their preseason usage. And unfortunately in a matchup versus a revamped and healthy Ravens defense, this makes starting either back extremely risky.
  • Could be a potential coming-out party for Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner if he gets matched up versus Rashod Bateman. Don’t be surprised if Bateman starts out the gates slow and we just see the Baltimore TEs between Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely just feast. Gang Green was bottom-five versus TEs last season.
  • J.K. Dobbins is extremely questionable. If he can’t go…Mike Davis is my pivot at RB. Picked him up on my latest zero-RB squad and will likely be starting him. Pray for me. Luckily, it works in Davis’ favor that Kenyan Drake has not been with the team very long, he ran as the starter during the preseason and he gets a plus matchup versus the Jets defense that was bottom-three in fantasy points to RBs last season. If Baltimore could turn dusty Devonta Freeman into a bellcow for a few weeks last season…Davis can be serviceable in a pinch.

Jaguars at Commanders

  • A coinflip game between two teams in one of the lowest under/overs of the Week 1 slate. But one thing is for certain. If you drafted Antonio Gibson as an RB2/3, you should play him this week. The Jaguars’ didn’t do enough to fortify their interior defensive line from last season.
  • Their projected starters – Folorunso Fatukasi, DaVon Hamilton and Roy Harris-Robertson – all ranked outside the top 48 in PFF run defense last season. This defense is still going to have massive problems stopping the run when trailing in games.
  • With Brian Robinson Jr. on the shelf for the next four weeks, Gibson should be in lineups as an RB2 with upside. He’s going to get volume in a plus-matchup. Don’t let his rollercoaster summer distract you from the facts.
  • Don’t play James Robinson – who reportedly will be active in Week 1 despite tearing his Achilles in December. What kind of workload J-Rob will take on is a total mystery based on his limited ramp-up before the season, so he can’t be trusted even as the “starter.” Besides, Washington’s defensive line is stacked – 5th-fewest rushing yards allowed per game to opposing RBs in 2021 – making an efficient running game highly improbable.
  • Luckily, Travis Etienne Jr. should be involved throughout as a receiver in his first NFL regular season game to make up for a lack of rushing juice. However, the total volume ETN will get is a major question mark.
  • Terry McLaurin‘s a No.1 WR that gets alpha usage. And Carson Wentz‘s deep ball could further unlock his weekly ceiling. He’s an upside WR2 in Week 1 versus a new-look Jaguars secondary.
  • Jahan Dotson is also super duper cheap at $3.4K as a super salary saver on DraftKings. Played as the clear-cut WR2 during the preseason.
  • Christian Kirk at $5,100 is way too cheap for a WR that should easily lead his team in targets. Kirk saw limited preseason action but was heavily peppered by Trevor Lawrence in his lone appearance. Their strong connection carries over into Week 1 of the regular season. Over on his 50.5 receiving yards prop on Prizepicks.com. Washington’s Benjamin St-Juste is the projected slot cornerback…bottom-10 in yards per reception allowed last season. Best DFS approach in this game is to skinny stack Gibson and Kirk. Get pieces of both sides it what could be a sneaky fun game for fantasy purposes.
  • Zay Jones is the sneaky candidate to the actual No. 2 WR in this offense, not Marvin Jones Jr. For that reason, I’d bet the under on Marvin Jones’ 42.5 receiving yards prop.
  • Commanders are a solid streaming defense and punt defense on DraftKings at $2,500. The Jaguars will be extremely pass-heavy under new head coach Doug Pederson, creating a lot of opportunities for Washington to rack up sacks, turnovers, etc.

Giants at Titans

  • Start Kadarius Toney. Very cheap in DFS at $4.1K. Target magnet when healthy last season.
  • Wan’Dale Robinson stock down. Sterling Shepard‘s healthy status means we could see a lot less of the rookie as a full-time slot player. Take the under on his 37.5 receiving yards prop. Same for Kenny Golladay and his nine fantasy points prop. The dude is officially cooked and will be a non-factor all year until proven otherwise.
  • Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley because of volume. Barkley is vastly underrated in DFS priced at $6.1K despite zero threats for touches and a three-down skill set.
  • Don’t start Titans pass-catchers and instead bet their under props. A run-heavy approach will hinder Robert Woods‘ upside and Treylon Burks‘ status as a full-time player is still up in the air. Too tough to trust in Week 1 even against an exploitable secondary. Woods’ player prop sits at 50 receiving yards. The god himself – A.J. Brown hit that mark in just 5/12 games last season.

Chiefs at Cardinals

  • Zach Ertz has been dealing with a calf injury and has already been labeled day-to-day. I’d be looking to get ahead of Ertz missing Week 1 by adding another tight end off the waiver wire. Trey McBride seems like an obvious plugin-play, but Maxx Williams is also on the roster vying for snaps on offense.
  • Start of the week: Marquise Brown. Love the over 65.5 receiving yards. No DeAndre Hopkins and potential hobbled versions of Ertz and Rondale Moore (MRI on Thursday) suggest Brown can be a target hog in this high-scoring affair.
  • 26% target share for Brown last season (top-10). And before Lamar Jackson‘s injury, Hollywood Brown ranked… as WR15 overall and as the WR11 in points per game.
  • Moore is a screaming value at $4,000 on DraftKings. Entering his second season with a straightforward path for an expanded role in the Cardinals’ offense. He flashed his potential early on for Arizona in 2021, with 182 receiving yards in his first two NFL games. But Kliff Kingsbury never opted to go back to Moore with the likes of A.J. Green and Christian Kirk playing solid roles. We should see Moore – and his dead-last 1.3 aDOT – experience significant growth in Year 2
  • The Arizona Cardinals’ secondary is scary, but in all in the wrong ways. They have zero cornerbacks on the roster that earned a top-35 PFF grade in 2021. Their highest-graded CB – Robert Alford (CB – ARI) – is a free agent. The only addition they made was re-signing former undrafted free agent Antonio Hamilton, who finished as PFF’s 58th-graded cover CB in 2021. He’s projected to start for Arizona opposite 2021 fourth-rounder Marco Wilson, who allowed the third-highest passer rating in coverage as a rookie (134.1).
  • But Wilson won’t even be playing due to a cooking accident, so ex-Raiders cornerback Trayvon Mullen will start in his place on the perimeter. He led the NFL in highest aDOT when targeted in 2021 (18.7). He can be beaten deep.
  • Needless to say, the Cardinals’ defense will be one to attack with fantasy WRs. Giddy up, Marquez Valdes-Scantling! Go OVER 45.5 receiving yards and play him in DFS!
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire -3rd-best matchup per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart. CEH is the clear-cut starter on early downs and should own the majority of red-zone touches giving him solid fantasy RB2 appeal. Going over on 45.5 rushing yards.

Raiders at Chargers

  • I love Gerald Everett as a streaming tight end. Patrick Graham is the new Raiders defensive coordinator formerly of the Giants. New York allowed the most red-zone targets to TEs last season. Mt Everett is about to go boom with touchdown upside in a high-scoring contest. And the Raiders were already bad against TEs last season, allowing the 5th-most targets and 3rd-most touchdowns. No. 2 tight end Donald Parham Jr. also looks like he could miss this game due to injury, opening more opportunities up for Everett to #kaboom.
  • Keenan Allen remains a high-floor but low-ceiling play. His receiving prop sits at 62.5 receiving yards. But he went over that number just twice in his last six games played. And during Mike Williams‘ hot streak to start last season, just thrice did Allen surpass 62.5 receiving yards. Also, Raiders slot cornerback Nate Hobbs is #good. Top-five in yards per snap allowed from the slot. Taking the under on Allen’s receiving prop this week.
  • I have Williams ranked ahead. The last time LA played the Raiders, he earned 17 targets!
  • Darren Waller remains an elite option at the position as no team allowed more yards to TEs than the Chargers in 2021. Waller also averaged eight targets per game in those contests.
  • Hunter Renfrow‘s a sneaky candidate to score even with Waller and Davante Adams in the fold. Caught 3 TDs versus the Chargers last season.
  • Josh Jacobs is hardly the fantasy RB1 we thought he could become, but he’s hard to get completely away from against a LA defense that allowed the third-most rushing yards to RBs in 2021. L.A. doesn’t prioritize stopping the run, so Jacobs should have some range to run as fantasy RB2 with some TD-juice even behind a porous offensive line. Volume is slightly in question along with his receiving role, but not enough to remove him from the back-end RB2 conversation. Besides, if LA does decided to focus more on stopping the run with the additions of Austin Johnson, Khalil Mack and Sebastian Joseph-Day, that poses problems for Jacobs.

Packers at Vikings

  • Over the final eight weeks of the 2021 season, A.J. Dillon was the RB6 overall in half-point scoring averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game (11th). Dillon’s 32 red-zone touches ranked third in the NFL to end the season. The bruising back has fantasy RB2 appeal with TD upside versus the Vikings. In Week 17 against Minnesota, Dillon totaled 83 yards from scrimmage on 16 touches with 2 TDs to boot. He out-snapped and out-touched Aaron Jones by three touches.
  • But for DFS, I’d look at Romeo Doubs for the price savings at $3K. Always a chance he could get some run after a strong preseason.
  • I expect Irv Smith Jr. to play an every-down role in the Vikings offense, but I do understand some hesitance of immediately thrusting him into starting lineups after missing the entire 2021 season and 2022 preseason. It’s possible he falls to fourth or fifth in the target pecking order so it’s okay to take a wait-and-see approach for Week 1. Smith only has one career game with more than six targets, so I doubt you’ll feel burned if you leave him on the bench/waivers.

Buccaneers at Cowboys

  • Not overly concerned about Tom Brady versus the Cowboys’ pass rush. Per PFF’s OL/DL Matchup chart, Brady’s Bucs still have a major advantage.
  • But can’t say the same for Mike Evans, who will likely draw coverage from Trevon Diggs. Diggs gave up the most yards in coverage last season — so no don’t sit Evans, who makes his hey with TDs anyway — but be aware this might not be a double-digit target game for Big Mike. Evans was held to just 3 catches for 24 yards on six targets the last time he played Dallas in 2021. With Diggs in primary coverage, he caught one of three targets for 10 yards.
  • This type of blanket coverage should open things up for others in the offense, most notably Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and Julio Jones. If Gage is healthy, he’s my favorite to see a decent volume load. I envision Godwin (coming off injury) and Jones (33 years old) splitting time as part-time players on snap counts.
  • Ezekiel Elliott totaled just 33 rushing yards on 11 carries (4.9 fantasy points) versus a stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense last season
  • I’m afraid Week 1 of 2022 will bring similar results. The Bucs’ defensive front is still stacked with the additions of Akiem Hicks and Logan Hall, and Dallas’ offensive line has just gotten worse since last season. With Tony Pollard likely to be the more involved RB as a receiver, Zeke falls into the TD-or-bust category amid a brutal matchup. Tampa Bay allowed the 3th-lowest TD conversion rate on rushes inside the 5-yard line last season.
  • Dalton Schultz remains a superb tight end play versus the pass-funnel Buccaneers. Tampa has allowed the 2nd-most receptions to TEs the last two seasons.

Broncos at Seahawks

  • Game script is a major concern if the Seahawks fall behind, but Rashaad Penny seems primed for a massive workload with Ken Walker III iffy for Monday night. Not a super high ceiling, but volume should be enough to warrant a start out of Penny, who is always capable of ripping off a huge run.
  • Javonte Williams “should” take over as the true RB1 in this season, but it might not happen in Week 1. Especially versus a Seahawks defense that was stout versus rushers, but decimated by RBs in the passing game in 2021. RB2 with upside until proven otherwise.
  • Start Jerry Jeudy. 21% target rate for Jeudy last season at least proves he can command targets. And the addition of Russell Wilson should convert those targets into actual production.
  • He was kept out of the preseason as the clear starter. If Albert Okwuegbunam is not factoring in early on then Jeudy can contribute from the get-go. Rookie Tariq Woolen will start opposite Sidney Jones and was only drafted based on his athletic traits. Still, super raw and likely no match for a route-running savant like Jeudy.
  • Stream Albert Okwuegbunam if you’re in TE purgatory. Rookie Greg Dulcich is out, which slates the uber-athletic Bronco as TE1. Preseason usage was a mixed bag, but the top-tier upside is there if you need to shoot for the moon on Monday night. Rather him than Noah Fant…

Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings

 

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