Economy, abortion shape Pennsylvania midterm races — CBS News Battleground Tracker

John Fetterman, of Pennsylvania, is five points ahead of Mehmet Oz among potential voters in Pennsylvania, in a Senate race that still seems fluid, Republicans less enamored of the candidates he nominated, and Democrats fighting economic headwinds. are. This is a race in which voters are thinking about national implications, even as the personal qualities of candidates have come to the fore.

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an authenticity gap

Most voters describe Fetterman as saying that much more than what he actually believes, they describe Oz as doing so. A large majority described Oz as simply saying what they think voters want to hear.

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Couple that with criticisms of Joe Oz’s Pennsylvania residency and its implications: Two-thirds don’t think he’s been in the state long enough to understand its issues. Oz surpasses the Fetterman in terms of “perfect feel” as well as personal compatibility ratings. In fact, most Oz supporters say they are supporting him primarily to oppose Fetterman, not because they like Oz.

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And despite the fact that Oz has only recently entered politics, it is Fetterman who is seen more as a “representation of change.”

Meanwhile, the Oz campaign’s efforts to raise health questions about Fetterman don’t seem as effective by comparison: Most voters think Fetterman is good enough to serve. (Even so nearly four out of 10 Republicans say he is.)

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Primary Process: Any buyer’s remorse for the GOP?

Democrats expressed greater satisfaction about nominating Fetterman than Republicans about nominating Oz. (The same is true for candidates in the running for governor.)

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It is the non-MAGA Republicans (who do not consider themselves to be part of the movement) who disapprove of Oz as their candidate more than the MAGA Republicans.

These same non-MAGA Republicans do not view their Senate vote regarding former President Donald Trump to the same extent that MAGA Republicans do. So, perhaps Trump’s endorsement of Oz doesn’t carry as much weight. And in fact, non-MAGA Republicans are not as supportive of Oz as their MAGA counterparts.

Fetterman’s supporters are more enthusiastic about him than about Oz’s supporters.

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Issues in Focus: Economy

The economy and inflation top the list of issues overall, and that helps Oz — like Republicans nationwide, he does better with voters who rank him higher. This is partly because they are the party out of power, and because Republicans prioritize the economy.

Eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters say high prices have been difficult or difficult for them. Low-income Pennsylvanians are particularly hard hit.

In fact, among independents, Oz performed slightly better than those who describe the price increase as difficulty or hardship.

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abortion

The abortion issue is helping Fetterman. For her democratic base, abortion is more important than the economy. Fetterman is the leader among all who say this is very important, both men and women.

Most Democrats say the Rowe versus Wade reversal has increased their chances of voting this year. (Most Republicans don’t mind the case.)

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one national election in one state

So much for “all politics is local”. Three to one, Pennsylvanians tell us that national issues and the direction of the country are more important to them than local issues when it comes to Senate elections. Well, maybe, because all eyes of the country are on the state.

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Therefore, national figures play a big role – including Trump.

Pennsylvania Democrats say their vote for the Senate is as much to oppose Trump as it is to support President Biden.

Most Pennsylvania Republicans are tempted to oppose Mr. Biden. But four in 10 big Republicans say their Senate vote is also to support Trump.

Beyond Republicans, however, Trump turns out to be a negative race-wide: for all voters for whom Trump is a factor—either through support or opposition—they are on balance to choose Fetterman over Oz. Huh.

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Democracy and…not that much desire to negate elections

Mr Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020. The stance some Republicans took in their 2022 primary that Mr Biden did not legitimately win the presidency is not a stance most voters would like their elected officials to embrace.

Only a third of the state’s Republicans – and under a fifth of its voters – want elected officials in the state to have claimed Mr. No Win the 2020 election.

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Eight-in-10, bipartisan majority voters would like to see the next secretary of state — who will be appointed by the governor — create election rules that are neutral on both sides, and not in favor of either.

All of this may indicate that even for Republicans, now after the primaries, those stances are not the same litmus test.

debate on debate

Yes, the debate is at least somewhat important to voters, although not terribly important to most. Given the campaigns’ stance, it may come as no surprise that Republicans think it’s more important than Democrats.

For Republicans who think Fetterman is not in good enough health, there is a debate — perhaps strategically — of added importance.

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governor’s race

Of the four major-party candidates running for Senate and governor, Democrat Josh Shapiro has the most personally favorable ratings. Combined with strong support for women, she is 11 points above Republican Doug Mastriano.

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Shapiro has a broad edge among voters who say abortion should be legal in Pennsylvania—which is the majority of voters. That includes the support of about a third of Republicans who think it should be legal. Meanwhile, more than eight in 10 voters believe Maastriano will restrict access to Pennsylvania.

In addition, there may be some “buyer’s remorse” from the primaries regarding Maastriano from Republicans, as four in 10 wish their party had nominated a different candidate.

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So what Is local, then? A lot, still.

Crime, gun violence, and drug and opioid addiction are all seen as problems in Pennsylvania’s own region.

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Republicans say illegal immigration is a problem in their area; This is the case for Republicans across the state. Democrats in particular feel that racism, access to health care and school conditions are problems in their areas.

The majority of both Republicans and Democrats cite housing costs as a problem.


This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted with interviews between September 6-12, 2022, with a statewide representative sample of 1,194 registered voters in Pennsylvania. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education, and geographic region based on the US. Census current population survey, as well as for the 2020 presidential election. The margin of error is ±3.8 points.

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