Analysis: Biden equivocates on 2024 as Republicans send culture wars into overdrive

The midterm campaign once seemed certain to trigger Biden’s low approval rating. But there is some momentum among Democrats after the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion and the president’s approval ratings are beginning to tick up amid falling gas prices.

Following earlier predictions that the midterm election curse that plagued first-term presidents would bring about a Republican wave, the GOP is now burying its most effective message — one linked to raging inflation under Biden — in culture. by ruling the wars.

With all this the extravagant spectacle of former President Donald Trump still falsely claiming that he won the last election and falling into the crowd is said to give dark signals of potential violence if he is accused of mishandling highly classified documents. is alleged.

Seven weeks before Election Day, unpredictable and potentially dangerous political forces are on the rise and it is difficult to fix the issues that will decide whether Democrats hang on to both houses of Congress or lose one or both.

It is in that volatile political party that Biden’s remarks, set to air in London for Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral, were broadcast.

Of course, this could just be because of Biden being Biden. His off-the-cuff remarks are often held back by his employees. But his statement, and a similar statement by first lady Jill Biden last week that he had not discussed the re-election race, would be sure to spark speculation.

“Look, my intention, as I said to start, is that I will run again. But that’s just an intention. But is it a firm decision to run again? It remains to be seen, Biden told CBS’s Scott Pele. On “60 Minutes”.

Biden, who has a tragedy-ridden life, has often said that he is “a great honor of fate.” He will be over 80 if he runs again, and much could happen before the 2024 election in which Trump is already indicating he is likely to run.

But Biden’s remarks were shocking as he singled out himself. They will likely renew questions about who might be the Democratic nominee in 2024 – a tide of speculation that had calmed after the president’s recent legislative success.

Looks like DeSantis has 2024

DeSantis is a potential Republican candidate whether Trump runs or not. He has already used his platform to establish a formidable conservative power base on transgender issues and Covid-19 precautions, which would look impressive in a Republican presidential primary.

On Sunday for sending migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, off Florida, in Kansas, she received a standing ovation, praising a move that critics labeled un-American and inhumane.

In some ways, attempts by DeSantis and Graham to appeal for a populist base hint at political misconduct in the party as the year-over-year jump in food prices since 1979 gives Republicans a winning campaign theme.

DeSantis receives a standing ovation from GOP voters after migrants are taken to Martha's Vineyard

But while the focus on the economy is the stated priority of GOP leaders, base voters are often drawn to the stunt politics pioneered by Trump and DeSantis. It can sometimes seem like the GOP is locked in a perpetual primary cycle to appeal to its most enthusiastic voters while ignoring the broader general electorate for some of the Trump-backed candidates who won this year’s primaries. may prove problematic.

It’s too early to call November’s elections, which see Republicans still well positioned at a distance to take the House and capture the Senate. History shows Democrats are in for a defeat, but earlier predictions of a Republican wave look bleak, as a new NBC News poll finds Democrats on the general ballot and Biden’s approval ratings with the GOP on their backs since October. Shown moving forward at the highest point. Democratic momentum has grown as the GOP returns to its culture war playbook, especially after the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling in June.

Unexpected twists are affecting the 2022 campaign, with Election Day less than two months away, and making it far more difficult to predict what the determined winning issue will be for the victorious party in an internally alienated nation.

Trump Looks to Fail Tim Ryan's Courtship of Republican Voters in Ohio

All of this is also taking place against the backdrop of Trump’s attempt to turn the midterms into an arena of revenge for the 2020 election, which he refuses to admit he has lost, and the Mar-a-Ram by the FBI. He has deep legal problems after Lago’s discovery. , His dark and provocative rhetoric was shown at a rally in Ohio on Saturday night. But the ubiquity of the former president, who has not been charged with a crime, reminds many more liberal voters why they turned against him.

the risk of going too far

Democrats rushed to capitalize on the openings offered by DeSantis and Graham.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams said Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union: “Migrants are human beings and we should treat them like humans. They are being used as political pawns to gain publicity “

“It is a misfortune for our entire country,” he said.

Graham's 15-week abortion bill further complicates Republican midterm messaging

Illinois Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, likened the latest immigration stunt by Republican governors – including Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who last week dropped migrants outside the residence of Vice President Kamala Harris. – for the Trump administration’s staunch anti-migrant policies.

“Why is it that when Republicans want to enforce their immigration principles, it’s always the kids who are the victims,” ​​Durbin said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We saw it with children in cages. We saw it with children being forcibly removed from their parents, some who never got to be with their families. And now, once again, it’s kids and families in these buses. has been placed. and moved for political purposes across the United States.”

DeSantis argued that liberal states such as Massachusetts, where migrants were flown in, are to blame for encouraging cross-border influx, and that he was defiant during his appearance in dark red Kansas. “It’s a crisis. Now it’s getting a little more attention,” DeSantis said.

While the Republican outlook on the border often seems extreme, there may be some fertile political ground for the party on the issue, given that the Biden administration has failed to come up with a solid strategy for dealing with the cross-border. Earlier this month, Harris said on NBC that Borderlands was “safe”—a statement that seemed to be flying in the face of reality.

The Republican approach to immigration is a textbook example of how both parties are appealing to completely different voters in a fragmented nation. For example, a Pew Research poll this month found that an overwhelming majority of conservatives wanted stronger border security and more deportations of undocumented migrants. Democrats, considering border security as important, were most concerned with finding a way for them to live.

Nevertheless, the majority of voters in both groups offer asylum to refugees fleeing war and violence. This is one reason why DeSantis’ use of Venezuelan immigrants, who are fleeing an oppressive socialist dictatorship, could prove to be a risky move among the wider electorate.

Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom embark on the sensational politics of 2024

It is unclear whether this scorched earth Republicanism, which parallels Trump’s populist rhetoric, is a good recipe for winning the general election.

Former Democratic President Bill Clinton suggested in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that this brand of relentless assault politics was designed to “scare” people. He argued that Democrats were trying to solve people’s problems – but that is a goal with its own significant challenges.

Clinton said, “Building a barn is harder than taking one down. And then when you build it, you have to explain what you’ve built and why it’s a good thing to have your animals in your barn.” ” “It’s hard, but it’s really worth doing.”

Graham disappoints his colleagues

While DeSantis is eyeing a future presidential bid by deliberately adopting policies that provoke anger among Democrats, Graham is more curious.

Some Washington Republicans can barely control their desperation to shield the GOP from a new position, like they are trying to prevent political damage from a Supreme Court ruling. But Graham was not remorseful in his appearance on “Fox News Sunday.”

Graham said, “Here’s what I would say to the Republican Party: Fear not. Stand up for the child.” “When you are asked about abortion, the answer may not be ‘I would like to reduce inflation.’ Give a logical answer.”

In a sign of the issue’s political sensitivity, South Dakota Republican Sen. Mike Rounds will not support his aide’s motion on “State of the Union” on Sunday.

“I think the states are in a better position to try and find the right direction on a state-by-state basis.”

However, the rounds didn’t break this week with DeSantis and Abbott on the other top issue on the right – immigration. The unity on that theme proves how, as it was for Trump in 2016, it looks to be a mobilizing force for the GOP base in 2022 and beyond.

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