2022 NFL Week 3 Picks: Bengals and Texans pick up first wins, Bills blow out Dolphins

Two weeks into the season we still don’t know anything. Well, I take that back — I know my record against the spread currently isn’t acceptable. We’re going to work on that starting in Week 3, which profiles as a real interesting opportunity for some road teams with short numbers, either as a favorite or as a tiny dog. 

There’s also a host of teams who are currently winless, and the heat is going to start getting turned up very quickly for anyone who heads into Week 4 without a single victory to their name. 

I think there’s a decent chance one or two of them end up picking up that first win, including both the Bengals and the Texans. Let’s get to the Week 3 picks. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 3 Picks

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Stream:
Amazon Prime
Follow: CBS Sports App

Featured Game | Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

No clue how this game ends up going over the total of 38.5. Neither team is exceptionally explosive on offense and both defenses (despite missing key pass rushers) are fairly stout. More importantly, the wind looks like it’s going to be whipping mostly all night, upwards of 22mph for most of the evening. That should mean a lot of runs, very few passes and very few points. I’m not sure how much lower the total can get, but I’d back the Steelers getting points and the under in this spot of offensively challenged AFC North rivals. 

The pick: Steelers 13, Browns 10

Props, Best Bets: Under 38.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (One month free trial)

Featured Game | Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

TuAnon is flourishing after two weeks and buddy-oh-buddy is there potential for Dolphins fans to come out in full force with a home win against the Bills here. Miami could flagplant their interest in trying to steal the AFC East with a win here and Mike McDaniel’s COY odds would be roughly -150 with a win here. I’m inclined to back Buffalo but think the over will be a more popular play. The DFS ownership in this game will be outrageous after seeing the Bills offense and Miami’s comeback last week. This pick of mine is not fading Tua or Miami, it’s simply a bet on the Bills being by far and away the best team in football and people not catching up to it yet.

The pick: Bills 35, Dolphins 17

Props, Best Bets: Pass

Bengals at Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (One month free trial)  

Featured Game | New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets and Joe Flacco shocked the world in Week 2 with a once-in-several-decades comeback against the Browns. People are high on the Jets and low on the Browns. Nothing would be more delightful than seeing Cincy go down, if only to watch John Breech sweat on the Pick Six Podcast (our daily NFL show, subscribe rate and review!). But Joe Burrow going down to 0-3 feels like a bit too much given how lucky the Jets have been the last two weeks in terms of keeping things close. The Bengals OL isn’t great, but the Jets pass rush isn’t as dangerous as the Steelers and Cowboys. Weather forecast looks a little sloppy for the New York area, but there’s some sneaky over potential here if either team gets a lead and everyone has to start throwing downfield. 

The Pick: Bengals 28, Jets 21

Bets: Bengals -5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (One month free trial)  

Featured Game | Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans

Super low total (40) and the line steaming towards the Bears. This isn’t an easy one. Some daring people will roll Chicago for survivor pools, but the Texans are too scary for me. They like to *hang around* and make things awkward. The Broncos could have easily lost in Week 2 and the Colts should have lost in Week 1. I have no interest in fading them against a team with a questionable roster, a very questionable offense all while facing a Lovie Smith Revenge Game. 

The Pick: Texans 24, Bears 17

Bets: Pass

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens

Totally up in the air based on Lamar Jackson, who “vows” to play apparently. The total here feels suspiciously high to me. Patriots unders have been great and Lamar is hurt? Can’t touch it until we know what Lamar’s status actually is. 

The Pick: Ravens 24, Patriots 21

Bets: Nope

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (One month free trial)  

Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Colts have to be in full-blown desperation mode at this point. A Week 1 tie against the Texans followed by a shutout from the Jaguars? And now the Chiefs are coming to town. Michael Pittman is massive to this game — Indy needs someone to threaten down the field. The Chargers backdoored last weekend, but make no mistake the Chiefs are cooking on offense right now. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are basically involved in a Zoolander-style dance off with Tyreek Hill at this point. Indy is more desperate, but the Chiefs are too damn hot right now. 

The Pick: Chiefs 31, Colts 18

Bets: Chiefs -5.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions over is a bet this season until it doesn’t hit. This team simply refuses to die and thusly ends up in some kind of shootout every week. Imagine Dan Campbell yelling at you on the sideline — you don’t think about the scoreboard, you just feel like you shotgunned four Red Bulls in a row. Then you run on the field and pretend it’s a one-score game. 

The Pick: Lions 35, Vikings 31

Bets: OVER, OVER, OVER 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
 FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here) 

Featured Game | Tennessee Titans vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Two very prominent AFC playoff contenders have started off quite slow this season. Which is a worse way to get daggered — Kyler Murray runs 14 billion yards on fourth downs and two-point conversions to snatch a win … or … benching your QB midway through the third quarter of a MNF game because you simply got overpowered? The Raiders are a good team and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game or it just turned into a random shootout. But I’m backing the Titans on my “if you played the Bills you’re not as bad as you look” theory here. 

The Pick: Titans 31, Raiders 28

Bets: Titans +2, Over 45.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

This game is something else right here. The Panthers feel like a One Pot whose timer went off an hour ago or so. The pressure is there big time on Matt Rhule. That being said, that defense is better than you think and the Saints offense might not be able to manufacture a ton on the road here. 

The Pick: Panthers 18, Saints 15

Bets: Nope

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
 FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)   

Featured Game | Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Hefty spread for a nasty NFC East rivalry. Such is the respect Vegas is giving the Eagles after two impressive performances this season. Jalen Hurts was flashing breakout passing skills last week and has really good vision for running the ball. He avoids contact when he has to, but has a cagey-veteran quality to his moves near the goal line. Carson Wentz has flashed his upside the first two weeks of the season. If Darius Slay trails Terry McLaurin, this could be a monster game for Jahan Dotson (again). This could be a potential shootout, honestly. 

The Pick: Eagles 31, WFT 24

Bets: Over

Jaguars at Chargers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (One month free trial)  

Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are the perfect opponent for a Chargers home game. There won’t be aggressive, in-stadium opponent noise. Jacksonville notoriously struggles on the West Coast. Justin Herbert’s game status is a big concern — there’s a touch too much optimistic smoke coming out of Los Angeles. I wouldn’t want to bet the Chargers without knowing for certain Herbert was going to play this week. It’s looking better for him to go as of Thursday with Herbert practicing but I wouldn’t want to bet this game until I saw Herbert off the injury report or officially active. 

The Pick: Jaguars 24, Chargers 21

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons

Not the biggest headliner for the afternoon slate, although it’s a massive game for both these teams as far as their respective seasons go. If the Seahawks have legitimate hopes of making the playoffs this is a “must-win game.” The Falcons, meanwhile, want to pick up their first win of the season. I’m going to (perhaps foolishly) hope Seattle comes out a little more aggressive a la Week 1 and finds a way to pick up this win. I can’t foresee a ton of points here. 

The Pick: Seahawks 10, Falcons 9

Bets: Nope

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers course corrected nicely in Week 2, very similarly to last season, something he noted after the game. Tom Brady is going to be missing virtually his entire receiving corps. This total — 42 — is outrageously low for a Rodgers/Brady matchup, but the under is probably a pretty decent look. I lean to the Packers as well, particularly with Akiem Hicks out of the lineup, as they’ll be able to run more effectively than most opponents against the Bucs. 

The Pick: Packers 17, Bucs 14

Bets: Pass

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Cardinals have zero business sitting at 1-1 right now. Kyler Murray running around like a maniac on fourth down and making miracle plays is simply unsustainable. The Rams are being downgraded publicly because of Week 1’s blasting by the Bills and then. narrowly squeaking by the Falcons last week. But they took care of business against Atlanta before shenanigans happened and Buffalo just might be a buzzsaw. The Cardinals are shorthanded at wide receiver and the Rams have the sort of superstars to slow down Kyler and limit this passing attack. They won’t cough up a huge second half lead a la the Raiders either. 

The Pick: Rams 28, Cardinals 13

Bets: Rams -3.5

49ers at Broncos

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: 
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers

The ultimate buy low spot for Denver’s offense here. The Broncos can’t be any worse than what we’ve seen the first two weeks right? Unfortunately for them, the 49ers may have actually upgraded at QB (while lowering the ceiling for their offense with the move from Trey Lance to Jimmy Garoppolo). San Francisco’s defense looks like it might very well be an elite unite once again and I’m not banking on Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett course correcting overnight.

The Pick: 49ers 21, Broncos 17

Bets: Under

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: 
ESPN, ABC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

Are the Cowboys more likely to land on “Monday Night Football” with Troy Aikman on the call? This is a rough but extremely important NFC East battle between two teams of questionable pedigree. Cooper Rush winning back-to-back games wouldn’t spur a QB controversy, but Jerry Jones says he “would walk to New York” in order for Rush to play well enough to spark one when Dak Prescott returns. His logic is pretty sound. I’m not sure if Rush will play that well here, but I do think the Dallas defense can do enough damage to steal a road win without Dak under center. 

The Pick: Cowboys 17, Giants 14

Bets: Pass

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