2022 NFL Week 1 predictions: Picks against the spread for every game

Here we go with Season 29 of the NFL in the Post’s betters guide.

Last season, we captured the regular-season championship and then went through a good 18-8 ATS postseason, including a Bengals cover and an under-Super Bowl LVI.

This column has been around for so long, the Ravens didn’t even exist until Season 3. Let’s do it!

New York Jets on Baltimore Ravens (+7)

The Jets have a chance to break some of the narrative right out of the gate.

The first is that they are still one of the NFL’s drags, one of seven teams listed at BetMGM at 150/1 or higher to win the Super Bowl. Some believe this season to be an even hotter dumpster fire than usual. In late August, ESPN released a 2023 mock draft in which the Jets were to choose No.

A third New York would be toast to the end of their four matches against the AFC North to start the season.

If you don’t think any or all of these things are possible, where have you been since 1970? But the credit for raising the talent level of the team also goes to GM Joe Douglas.

Bryce Hall.
Bryce Hall takes the ball into Precision.
Getty Images

I look forward to seeing what Mike LaFleur can do with a Michael Carter-Breeze Hall combo behind a better offensive line, joining Garrett Wilson and real NFL tightrope Elijah Moore. I’m interested to see what the defense looks like with actual edge rushers (Karl Lawson and Jermaine Johnson) and a new shutdown corner (Sous Gardner). Lamar Jackson might not like it.

Last year’s terrific Jets team pulled off home victories against playoff-going Titans and Bengals and was one stupid Jets trick away from beating Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. With seven points left in a week when a lot of crazy things happen, let’s give it a shot.

Tennessee Titans (-5.5) over New York Giants

One of the most interesting statistics found in Post’s massive 2022 NFL season preview is that over the past four seasons, the Giants have finished fourth in covering the spread at 21-12-2 on the road or in neutral venues. Those numbers lie hidden inside the failed tenures of Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge.

so he is. The second is that Brian Dabol and Vink Martindale, two AFC veterans, should know a lot more about the Titans than Mike Wrabel. But I worry that the Giants don’t have enough talent or at least the healthy talent to take on Derrick Henry on a potentially wet track, where the ground game will be king. When new GM Joe Scion uses words like “It’s the hand we’ve dealt” before the first game, it’s not a good sign.

Atlanta Falcons on New Orleans Saints (+5.5)

Great stat from VSIN’s Josh Appelbaum – since 2016 the divisional underdog is 22-8 ATS in Week 1. Yes, the Falcons may be the worst team in the NFL, but in theory you’d have the inferior team in each of those games and won 73 percent of them.

CHICAGO BEARS . at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

If there’s one team above all else that’s fully invested in getting its quarterback off to a flying start, it’s the 49ers with Trey Lance. Bears would be a different defense without Akim Hicks.

Trey Lance.
Trey Lance scrambles in Precision.
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Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengal (+6.5)

So many systems are running here. The first sectional is the ‘dog angle’. The next Super Bowl loser is the Jinx, which has seen those teams go 4-18 ATS over the past 22 seasons in next Week 1, according to Action Network’s C. Jackson Couarte. Then there’s one we’ve followed last season: Mike Tomlin is 45-23 ATS as an underdog.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) over Detroit Lions

A lot of people are loving lions because of “knock hard”, but I don’t see the translation. Last Halloween, the Eagles destroyed them 44-6, in Detroit, and I only see Philly getting better with further developments from AJ Brown, CJ Gardner-Johnson, and Jalen Hurts.

New England Patriots on Miami Dolphins (+3.5)

Have you heard the trend of divisional ‘dogs’ in week 1? I was stunned when the hook became available with the Patriots earlier in the week. Yes, please!

Bill Belichick.
Bill Belichick.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) Above Washington Commanders

The urge to take the small head begins to see what Trevor Lawrence can do with Travis Etienne Jr.’s handoff and Super Bowl champion Doug Pedersen’s ear. I prefer Commanders in general, but three of their seven wins last season were two points or less, so it’ll work here.

Cleveland Browns over Carolina Panthers (+1.5)

Deshan Watson suspension and Baker Mayfield revenge got lost in the angle that the Browns are the better team here, and maybe even more than a little. Amari Cooper extends the Nick Chub-Karim Hunt Ground Attack, and Miles hunts Garrett Baker.

Houston Texans on Indianapolis Colts (+7)

Sectional dogs in week 1, part 4. Like the Falcons, I might have to avert my eyes and watch the final score to see how we did. The Colts won two matchups in 2021 at a combined 62-3. Nevertheless, the line has gone from -8.5 to -7 for the Colts. Hmm.

Davismills.
Davis throws a pass at Mills Precision.
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Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) over Green Bay Packers

Hot Digit, Another Divisional Dalit! Davante Adams has left the building, and new No. 1 recipient Alan Lazard is suspicious of the pack. It is interesting to see Zadarius Smith in purple chasing down Aaron Rodgers.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) over Arizona Cardinals

Casey traded Tyrek Hill and was replaced by JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie Skye Moore. The line went from -4.5 to -6 by the Chiefs in a matter of days, a poor forecast for Cliff Kingsbury in the desert as their Texas Tech star Patrick Mahomes is knocking.

Las Vegas Raiders on Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)

That crazy finale of the 35-32 season makes me want to hook up with the Raiders as we end our six pack of divisional underdogs. The Chargers are my Super Bowl pick because I believe in Justin Herbert and his loaded roster. A narrow victory would serve both reasons.

Davante Adams and Derek Carr.
Derek Carr and Davante Adams before the pre-season game.
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Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The same teams met in last year’s opener, and the Books won the thriller 31-29. Dallas may not match their 12-5 record, but Micah Parsons and Trayvon Diggs could spell problems for Tom Brady, who appears to be not there yet.

monday

Denver Broncos over Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Seattle deserves to lose by three touchdowns because of those radioactive lime green uniforms alone. But here that would not be the reason. It’s all about Russell Wilson being open to using his many new weapons – including Javonte Williams on the ground and Jerry Judy and Cortland Sutton through the air.

Russell Wilson.
Russell Wilson in Precision.
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best bets

Steelers, Patriots, Browns.

lock of the week

Steelers (locks went 11-9 in 2021-22).

Thursday Night Football Pickup

Rams.

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