With the peak of hurricane season only three days away, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four systems in the Atlantic: Hurricane Earl, Hurricane Danielle and two tropical waves.
Hurricane Earl is forecast to become a major hurricane later this week. The impact on the US East Coast is likely to be dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
According to the Hurricane Center, the swell generated by Hurricane Earl is expected to reach Bermuda and the US East Coast by tonight.
According to AccuWeather, this is the first time more than one hurricane has hit the Atlantic at the same time since 2020.
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Earl, which became a hurricane Tuesday evening, continued to strengthen on Wednesday and is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday, with winds forecast to reach 130 mph. This would make it a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 130 to 156 mph.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda as Earl moves north.
Danielle remains a major hurricane over the North Atlantic.
The Hurricane Center said “huge high seas” are about 350 miles from Danielle’s center. It is about the distance from Tampa to Savannah, Georgia.
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One of the tropical waves, located off the coast of Africa, may become a tropical depression by the end of the week.
Another tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa by the end of the week.
Here’s the latest update from NHC on September 11th at 11am:
- Location: 460 miles south of Bermuda; 972 miles east of Daytona Beach
- Maximum wind speed: 85 mph
- Direction: North at 8 mph
Data from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph, with higher gusts.
Hurricane Earl:Earl forecast to become the first major hurricane of the 2022 season by late Thursday
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward for 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward for 140 miles.
- Location: 625 miles northwest of the Azores; 2,534 miles east of Augusta
- Maximum wind speed: 80 mph
- Direction: 16 mph to the northeast
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts.
Danielle should begin to weaken later today and transition into a Post-Tropical Cyclone on Thursday, with further weakening forecast through Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 70 miles out from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
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What else is there and where are they?
Tropical Wave 1: An area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of unorganized rain and thunder.
Tropical Wave 2: A tropical wave currently located near the West African coast is forecast to emerge offshore in the eastern Atlantic over the next day or so.
How likely are they to be strong?
Tropical Wave 1: Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system over the next few days, and may become a tropical depression during this period while it moves west to west-northwest 15 to 20 miles over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. runs at an hourly rate.
After that time, upper level winds are projected to be less favorable for development.
- Chance of formation through 48 hours: Moderate, 60 percent.
- Chance of formation through 5 days: Moderate, 60 percent.
Tropical Wave 2: Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development thereafter as the system moves west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
- Chance of formation through 48 hours: Low, close to 0 percent.
- Chance of formation through 5 days: Low, 30 percent.
Who is likely to be affected?
Hurricane Earl: Tropical storm status is expected in Bermuda starting Thursday afternoon. Earl is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain in Bermuda through Friday.
The swell generated by Hurricane Earl is expected to reach Bermuda by tonight and the US East Coast shortly.
According to the Hurricane Center, the swell is likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents during the weekend.
Hurricane Danielle: Currently there are rough seas in the main impact area from Danielle.
Where Danielle will go depends on many factors.
According to AccuWeather, there is a possibility that Danielle may make a loop before heading towards Ireland and the United Kingdom. Another possibility is a more southerly route into Western Europe, which could bring much needed rainfall to the region.
Tropical Waves: At this time it is too early to determine whether tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic will have any effect on the US.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and always be prepared during the active hurricane season.
Colorado State University’s 2-Week Forecast for September 1-14
Colorado State University’s two-week hurricane forecast for September 1-14 is approximately a 70% chance of normal activity, a 25% chance of above-normal activity, and a 5% chance of below-normal activity.
When is Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Although the start of the season is calm, the peak of the season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Weather clocks and warnings issued for your area
Tropical forecast for the next five days
See the National Hurricane Center’s five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.
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What is there?
The system is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What will happen next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. To make sure you’re always connected to the news, download your local site’s app. And check out our special membership offers here.